We've got the Miami Heat taking on the Dallas Mavericks, starting out Tuesday at 9PM ET on ABC
Both teams come in as hot a possible at predicting this will be a tough one, so lets break each team down to see who has a possible advantage at winning it all.
Dallas Mavericks
Without a doubt Dirk Nowitzki has been the player of these playoffs. No one has been more reliable, made bigger shots and carried the team on his shoulder. He has been a force in the paint, from mid-range and from behind the 3 point line, all in all averaging 28.4 points a game (2nd only to Kevin Durant). Oh and what can I say about his free throw shooting, he is 130 out of 140; that translates into a 92.9%. Just all in all a great player, and from what you hear in press conferences and interviews, a great team leader. He has been often regarded as a soft player due to his laid back attitude, I believe nothing is further from the truth and these 15 games have proven that
Along with Dirk's spectacular play, 38 year old Jason Kidd has played his part really well. While he doesn't have the speed he had 94 years ago he arrived at the NBA, he makes up with smarts and experience. He is averaging 7.7 assists per game and has averaged 2.2 steals per game; along with all the intangible he brings to the court.
To complement Kidd come Jason Terry and JJ Barea. Terry, the only other survivor along with Nowitzki from that 2006 team, we know about and know what he is capable off -great player off the bench, provides a spark, can run with the best of them, and when he gets hot he can take over a game -if not, ask the Lakers what happened after he was burning them up and ended the game 9 for 10 from behind the arc. Barea we, or casual fans, didn't know much about, but he has been an incredibly valuable asset; his speed and aggressive style provide a change of pace from what defenses see from J-Kidd and the JET, he has been a huge spark for the team and has really come into his own come playoff time -even with the huge cheap shot he took from Andrew Bynum-.
Inside the paint we've got Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion, both of whom haven't put great individual numbers but represent what the Mavs are all about, getting the best result for the team regardless of who scores the basket.
Dallas comes off beating Portland 4 games to 2, sweeping the Lakers 4-0 (the most dominant playoff series win in a long, long time), and finally ousting the OKC Thunder 4-1 in the Western Conference Semifinals.
Miami Heat
There is no secret that I loathe the Heat, to me they are the furthest definition of what a team should be. They are just a gathering of All-Stars who have no idea on how to play as a team. I was convinced they wouldn't make it far due to this, yet they got to the final step of the way. Could it be enough or has their luck run out?
First and foremost they have Lebron James. Possibly one of the most gifted player since... nah I'm not going to compare him to a true legend. A great all around player who has only one thing on his agenda, himself. Just the other day I tweeted with my Beachbody coach (@katiechoudary, check her out even if you don't work out, she motivates the heck out of you to make every day count) and we were talking about players with class, she mentioned Derrick Rose and I was totally with her on the point that the kid shows class in every thing he does on and off the court; another example would be Ray Allen and Doc Rivers who showed the utmost class when the Heat were celebrating the win as if it was a Title, they stayed on the court to shake their hands and acknowledge they were beaten by the better team. On the other hand Lebron has no such attribute, from his infamous "The Decision" special, to his comments and all around attitute; they just scream out ASSHOLE. All that being said, there is no doubt he is on of the best players on the court today.
Along with James we've got D-Wade, who in my opinion is the most complete player there is in the world -there, I said it-. He plays every aspect of the game at a high lever, he may not be the best in all of them but when you put all the pieces together you get the most well rounded player there is. He is one of my favorites in and out of the arena and it's a shame that people boo him just because he is associated with Lebron.
Along with those 2 come Chris Bosh, Mario Chalmers, Mike Bibby and a whole cast of players that will no doubt play a huge role on how the series will evolve.
The Heat come into the Finals after beating Philadelphia 4-1 in the 1st round, the Celtics 4-1 in the 2nd, and finally the Bulls 4-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Final(s) Breakdown
- Both teams have a 12-3 record
- Dallas has the bigger series win (4-0) over the Lakers
- Dallas has a better scorer in the Playoffs with Dirk's 28.4 PPG compared to LeBron's 26.0 PPG
- Dallas has a better assist man in Jason Kidd with 7.7 APG during the playoffs
- As a team Dallas has been scoring 99.7 PPG to Miami's 92.9 (8.8 point difference)
- Miami has better team defense as they allow 88.3 PPG to the Mavs' 92.5 (4.2 PPG difference)
- Dallas still has the better difference between PPG scored vs PPG alloved with +7.2 to Miami's +4.6 (second place these playoffs, not a coincidence)
- Dallas has a better FG% 46.3% to the Heat's 44.3%
- Miami's Defensive FG% is better with 41.9% vs the 44.6% posted by Dallas
- 3PT FG% is owned by Dallas with 38.8% against Miami's 32.2%
- The arena noise, from what I've heard on TV (I've only been to the American Airlines Center in DFW and it LOUD even in a mid-season game) is some much more of a factor in Dallas. I feel bad when the game starts in Miami as you see a ton of empty seats.
From the bullet points (not taking in account the crowd factor) Dallas has a 7-2 lead yet when it comes to picking a real winner it is so much harder that just these stats. The series opens in Miami and most betting sites have the Heat a 4.5 point favorite with a 187.5 point O/U. That is much bigger of a difference than what I expected. Also they are putting Miami as the favorite as you have to bet 17.5 dollars to win 10 while Dallas pays you $14.50 for every 10 you bet. That is so one sided.
Who you got? I'd love to hear your thoughts on this or any other topic in the comments section
With all that said, my final pick to win the 2011 NBA Title is:
Dallas Mavericks in 6 games.
P.S. If Dallas wins the 1st game I will say it's over right on the spot. Let's see how it goes and I'll post my thoughts on Game 1 tomorrow night or early Wednesday.
For now...
Mr Khakbaz out!!!
